Kamala Harris’ Chances of Flipping Texas, as Houston Rally Nears

Vice President Kamala Harris will hold a campaign rally this week in Houston, home to a state where she trails former President Donald Trump in the race for the Oval Office, according to recent polls.
Harris’ campaign announced she will hold a rally alongside Democratic Senate candidate Colin Allred in Houston on Friday. Democrats have had their eyes on the Lone Star State, hoping that dwindling Republican margins could make it competitive in 2024. But as only razor-thin margins separate Harris and Trump in battleground states, Trump has carved out a stronger lead in Texas.
The event will be Harris’ first trip to Texas since she replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee in late July. Democrats are hoping her appearance can energize voters across the state and help catapult Allred to victory in his race against Republican Senator Ted Cruz, who has seen a smaller lead than Trump.
Details of Harris’ rally, including the time and possibly other participants, have not been announced at the moment.
On Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate gave Trump a 6.8 point lead in Texas, up from his 5.9 point lead one month earlier, on September 22. In the Senate race, Cruz holds a 3.8 point lead over Allred, according to the average.
A Morning Consult poll, conducted among 2,048 likely voters from October 6 to October 15, showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris (50 percent to 46 percent). A YouGov/Texas Politics Project poll, which surveyed 1,091 likely voters from October 2 to October 10, showed Trump up five points (51 percent to 46 percent). It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.97 percentage points.
A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll showed Harris with an identical 5-point margin (51 percent to 46 percent). It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.69 percentage points.
A Marist College poll, conducted among 1,186 likely voters from October 3 to October 7, showed Trump up seven points (53 percent to 46 percent).
In a statement to Newsweek, RNC spokesperson Taylor Rogers said Texas “has felt the brunt of Kamala’s wide-open border policies allowing a flood of dangerous illegal criminals into our communities.”
“While Border Czar Kamala Harris wastes her time in deep red Texas, she should make her third stop at the southern border and apologize to Jocelyn’s family. Texas is Trump Country and that won’t change in November!” Rogers added.
Jocelyn Nungaray, 12, of Houston, was found dead in a creek on June 17. Two Venezuelan nationals were charged with capital murder in the girl’s death.
Newsweek also reached out to the Harris campaign for comment via email on Tuesday.
Growth in areas like Houston—where Harris will be rallying—and other cities including Austin, Dallas and San Antonio, as well as their blue-trending suburbs, have allowed Democrats to make some gains in Texas over the past few election cycles.
Trump won Texas by about 5.6 points in 2020 and 9 points in 2016. In 2012, however, Republican Mitt Romney carried the state by nearly 16 points. Democrats came close to defeating Cruz in 2018, when former Representative Beto O’Rourke lost by only 2.6 points.
The Cook Political Report classifies Texas as “Likely Republican,” meaning it is “not considered competitive at this point” but has “the potential to become engaged.”
Early voting in Texas began on Monday and will end November 1.